UA News

From Shoshana Mayden, UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth

Fire management officials from key regions around the country and climate experts will meet at the University of Arizona March 5-6 to discuss the interplay between fire and climate as they begin planning for this season's potential fire danger.

This year, they will issue a fire season forecast.

The workshop, "Fire in the West," will be held at the Marriott University Park Hotel, 880 E. Second Street in Tucson. Now in its third year, the annual conference has become a key element in preparing for possible wildfires in the late spring and summer months.

"These workshops have had a tremendous impact on the way fire managers think about fire season planning, and have brought climate into the fire management equation at both regional and national levels," said Gregg Garfin, an assistant staff scientist with the UA's Institute for the Study of Planet Earth (ISPE) and one of the organizers of the meeting.

Climate forecasters from around the country will compare notes during the conference and, for the first time, create a consensus climate outlook for the fire season. The formal forecast will be issued on March 6 at 11 a.m.

"We hope the forecast will be utilized in this year's strategic planning by wildfire management," said Timothy Brown, director of the Program for Climate, Ecosystem, and Fire Applications (CEFA) at Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada. Brown will kick off a climate forecasting session Tuesday afternoon (1 p.m.) featuring presentations by climatologists from various agencies.

Climate experts at past workshops have accurately predicted seasonal climate conditions that influenced wildfires such as the Cerro Grande fire near Los Alamos, New Mexico in 2000 and large fires in the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and northwestern Nevada last year.

"We were ahead of the curve on the record-setting 2000 fire season in the western United States," Garfin said. "Forecasters and climatologists at our 2001 meeting brought to light very serious concerns about low snowpack and exceedingly dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest."

This year, officials are concerned about potential fire hazards in the Intermountain West, where dry conditions have prevailed for the past 3 years. Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and southwestern Texas are currently experiencing severe drought conditions, while rainfall has been 50 percent below average in the Northern Rockies, southern Utah, and western Colorado.

Snowpack is also below average in these areas, and most of Arizona and New Mexico is experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions. However, late winter or early spring storms could change the degree of fire hazard expected in the coming season, noted Thomas Swetnam, director of the UA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research.

"The challenge to fire managers, climatologists, and meteorologists is to incorporate both the long-term and short-term forecasts in fire management planning," he said.

In addition to discussions of the forecasts, the workshop will include two research symposia. The first (March 5), focusing on fire and climate, will feature talks ranging from smoke management to fire prediction.

The second symposium (March 6) on "human dimensions" will explore the implications fire has for "real people living in real places," said Barbara Morehouse an associate research scientist at ISPE. She will moderate the session.

Key individuals from throughout the western and southeastern United States, as well as Alaska, are expected to attend this year's conference. CEFA, ISPE, the UA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, the UA's Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, and the Tucson National Weather Service forecast office are sponsoring the workshop, with funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Joint Fire Science Program of the U.S. Department of the Interior and USDA Forest Service

Conference Schedule

Tuesday, March 5, 8 a.m. - noon
Fire-Climate Research Symposium (moderated by Gregg Garfin)
Computer modeling tools for legal smoke
Improving long-range prediction for land management activities
Fire climate forecasting research, in retrospect
Using the Standardized Precipitation Index as a measure of drought for strategic fire decision-making
Annual and decadal climate forcing of historical fire regimes in western North America
Climate in the context of fire management decision-making

Tuesday, March 5, 1 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.Climate Forecasts (moderated by Timothy Brown)
Review of the 2001 fire season and forecasts for 2002
Diagnostic discussion and CDC perspective
Development of a seasonal fire severity forecast
The IRI's forecast system, and its current temperature and precipitation forecasts for North America for June-August 2002
Climate Prediction Center forecasts
Statistical forecasts
Climate as a factor in the 2002 fire season; resource considerations

Wednesday, March 6, 8 a.m. - 10:45 a.m.
Southwest Fuels Assessment/Outlook (moderated by Thomas Swetnam)
The value of predictive services
Southwest uplands fuels outlook
Current winter weather trends in the Southwest and how well it correlates to fire occurrence
An analysis of large fire activity from 1990-2000 in the Southwest: A breakdown of the numbers

Wednesday, March 6, 11 a.m.
Announcement of the consensus climate forecast for the 2002 fire season

Wednesday, March 6, 1 p.m. - 5 p.m.
Human Dimensions (Moderated by Barbara Morehouse)
FIREWISE
Social science and fire management
The Flagstaff Approach
Public perceptions of tradeoffs between amenities and hazards in the wildland/urban interface

Further details including the complete agenda, speaker list, and background material are available at http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/fire/workshops/2002/

Contacts:
Dr. Barbara Morehouse, associate research scientist, UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, 520-622-9018, morehoub@u.arizona.edu

Dr. Thomas Swetnam, director, UA Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, 520-621-2112, tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu

Dr. Timothy Brown, director, Program for Climate, Ecosystem, and Fire Applications, Desert Research Institute, 775-674-7090, tbrown@dri.edu

Media Advisory
Media are welcome to attend and cover this event, which is not open to the general public. A copy of the conference program is available at http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/fire/workshops/2002/
Speakers will be available for interviews between sessions and during breaks. Several participants will also be available following the forecast announcement on Mar 6 at 11 a.m. To make arrangements for in-person or phone interviews, please contact Shoshana Mayden, UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, 520-622-8918. During the meeting, contact Mayden on cell phone at 520-465-9876.