Forecast: Wildfire Potential Above Normal in Arizona
The seasonal wildland fire potential shows that the southern region of Arizona has an "above normal" potential.
UA experts helped draft a report that indicates the wildfire season is likely to be busy through August.
Arizona's southern half, a large chunk of New Mexico and the southern regions of California and Nevada are forecast to have above-normal significant fire potential now through August.
A newly released report drafted by experts at The University of Arizona and both state and federal agencies shows that there will be reason for additional precaution during the May through August wildfire season.
Experts point to an increased potential for larger and more active fires in southern and central Arizona due to significant growth of buffelgrass, an invasive grass that provides fine fuel continuity in areas that were historically sparse, said Gregg Garfin, deputy director of science translation and outreach at the UA’s Institute for the Study of Planet Earth.
Significant fire potential refers to the likelihood that a wildland fire will require additional resources from outside the area in which the fire originated, said Garfin, also an investigator for the Climate Assessment for the Southwest project, or CLIMAS.
Areas designated "above-normal" are likely to require additional external resources during the forecast period.
Such details came out of the North American Seasonal Assessment Workshop Report , which was drafted at the end of April by fire, weather and climate specialists who met at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory in Colorado.
CLIMAS was one of the workshop sponsors along with the National Interagency Fire Center, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Desert Research Institute and Predictive Services.
Workshop participants also forecast above-normal significant fire potential across much of western Canada, the central Rocky Mountains, central plains, southwestern United States, and both the northwestern and northeastern of Mexico.
“Extensive grass and herb growth, forecasts for increased chances of below-average spring precipitation and above-average spring temperatures, and seasonal windiness have fire specialists concerned about this year’s fire season in lower elevations of the Southwest,” Garfin said.
Between January 1 and May 3, wildfires have burned 19,546 acres in Arizona and 226,829 in New Mexico, according to the Southwest Coordination Center, an interagency body that coordinates the mobilization of wildland fire resources throughout the Southwest.
In comparison, 12,966 acres in Arizona and 21,697 acres in New Mexico had burned between January 1 and May 15, 2007.
The report also indicated that significantly increased fire potential is predicted for May and June in the Southwest and eastern Colorado.
The likelihood for above-average fire potential will increase after May and through the summer in the western Great Basin, southern Alaska and southern California.
“Usually, when we have these kinds of conditions, fire officials urge extreme caution with fire – including campfires and even backyard barbeques for folks living in the foothills and urban fringe – especially in rangelands and where urban and wild areas meet,” Garfin said.
“Also," he added, "sparks from trailing or damaged mufflers or other metal from an automobile, or a lit cigarette tossed out the window of a car can easily ignite roadside grasses."
et cetera
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Gregg Garfin
Climate Assessment for the Southwest
520-622-9016