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CLIMAS: La Niña Bringing Warmer, Drier Winter

Oct. fire near Prescott shows dry conditions fueled by La Niña

An Oct. fire near Prescott shows dry conditions fueled by La Niña. Photo courtesy USDA Forest Service, Prescott National Forest.

UA forecasters say cooler ocean temperatures in the Pacific could deepen the drought in the Southwest.


By University Communications
November 26, 2007

The few splatters of rain here and there this fall are testament to what may be a drier than normal winter, according to forecasters at the Climate Assessment for the Southwest, or CLIMAS, at The University of Arizona.

The reason is the latest La Niña episode, a stretch of cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. La Niña conditions usually portend dry conditions in the Southwest. This is prompting concerns of expanding and deepening drought conditions across both Arizona and New Mexico, according to the latest CLIMAS report.

The report also covers changes in recent conditions, such as drought, temperatures, precipitation and area water supplies. There’s also a roundtable discussion of La Niña with several scientists, including Christopher Castro, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at the UA, David Gutzler, a professor of earth and planetary sciences at the University of New Mexico, Klaus Wolter, a meteorologist at the Climate Diagnostics Center in Boulder, Colo., and Gregg Garfin, deputy director of outreach at the UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, home to CLIMAS.

This month’s report is available at http://www.climas.arizona.edu/forecasts/swoutlook.html

et cetera

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